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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans ascending together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still